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NCAA Check - Chart 3
March 28, 2014 · Refreshed about 5 years ago
Description
Comparison of model results

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Run History
SELECT * FROM ( SELECT CASE WHEN fte.favorite_probability >= 0.50 AND fte.favorite_probability < .60 THEN '50% to 59%' WHEN fte.favorite_probability >= 0.60 AND fte.favorite_probability < .70 THEN '60% to 69%' WHEN fte.favorite_probability >= 0.70 AND fte.favorite_probability < .80 THEN '70% to 79%' WHEN fte.favorite_probability >= 0.80 AND fte.favorite_probability < .90 THEN '80% to 89%' WHEN fte.favorite_probability >= 0.90 AND fte.favorite_probability < 1.0 THEN '90% to 100%' ELSE 'Error?' END AS bucket, 'FTE' AS cat, AVG(fte.favorite_probability)*100 AS avg_win_prob_fte, COUNT(fte.id) AS games, COUNT(CASE WHEN fte.favorite_win_flag = 1 THEN fte.id ELSE NULL END)/COUNT(fte.id)::FLOAT*100 AS actual_win_pct FROM benn.ncaa_game_probabilities_538 fte WHERE year = 2014 OR (year = 2013 AND round != 1) GROUP BY 1,2 UNION ALL SELECT CASE WHEN vegas.favorite_probability >= 0.50 AND vegas.favorite_probability < .60 THEN '50% to 59%' WHEN vegas.favorite_probability >= 0.60 AND vegas.favorite_probability < .70 THEN '60% to 69%' WHEN vegas.favorite_probability >= 0.70 AND vegas.favorite_probability < .80 THEN '70% to 79%' WHEN vegas.favorite_probability >= 0.80 AND vegas.favorite_probability < .90 THEN '80% to 89%' WHEN vegas.favorite_probability >= 0.90 AND vegas.favorite_probability < 1.0 THEN '90% to 100%' ELSE 'Error?' END AS bucket, 'Vegas' AS cat, AVG(vegas.favorite_probability)*100 AS avg_win_prob_fte, COUNT(vegas.id) AS games, COUNT(CASE WHEN vegas.favorite_win_flag = 1 THEN vegas.id ELSE NULL END)/COUNT(vegas.id)::FLOAT*100 AS actual_win_pct FROM benn.ncaa_game_probabilities_vegas vegas WHERE year = 2014 OR (year = 2013 AND round != 1) GROUP BY 1 ) a ORDER BY 2,1 LIMIT 100
SELECT * FROM ( SELECT CASE WHEN fte.favorite_probability >= 0.50 AND fte.favorite_probability < .60 THEN '50% to 59%' WHEN fte.favorite_probability >= 0.60 AND fte.favorite_probability < .70 THEN '60% to 69%' WHEN fte.favorite_probability >= 0.70 AND fte.favorite_probability < .80 THEN '70% to 79%' WHEN fte.favorite_probability >= 0.80 AND fte.favorite_probability < .90 THEN '80% to 89%' WHEN fte.favorite_probability >= 0.90 AND fte.favorite_probability < 1.0 THEN '90% to 100%' ELSE 'Error?' END AS bucket, 'FTE' AS cat, AVG(fte.favorite_probability)*100 AS avg_win_prob_fte, COUNT(fte.id) AS games, COUNT(CASE WHEN fte.favorite_win_flag = 1 THEN fte.id ELSE NULL END)/COUNT(fte.id)::FLOAT*100 AS actual_win_pct FROM benn.ncaa_game_probabilities_538 fte WHERE year = 2014 OR (year = 2013 AND round != 1) GROUP BY 1,2 UNION ALL SELECT CASE WHEN vegas.favorite_probability >= 0.50 AND vegas.favorite_probability < .60 THEN '50% to 59%' WHEN vegas.favorite_probability >= 0.60 AND vegas.favorite_probability < .70 THEN '60% to 69%' WHEN vegas.favorite_probability >= 0.70 AND vegas.favorite_probability < .80 THEN '70% to 79%' WHEN vegas.favorite_probability >= 0.80 AND vegas.favorite_probability < .90 THEN '80% to 89%' WHEN vegas.favorite_probability >= 0.90 AND vegas.favorite_probability < 1.0 THEN '90% to 100%' ELSE 'Error?' END AS bucket, 'Vegas' AS cat, AVG(vegas.favorite_probability)*100 AS avg_win_prob_fte, COUNT(vegas.id) AS games, COUNT(CASE WHEN vegas.favorite_win_flag = 1 THEN vegas.id ELSE NULL END)/COUNT(vegas.id)::FLOAT*100 AS actual_win_pct FROM benn.ncaa_game_probabilities_vegas vegas WHERE year = 2014 OR (year = 2013 AND round != 1) GROUP BY 1 ) a ORDER BY 2,1 LIMIT 100
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